Karnataka Exit Polls: Congress in Lead, but Who Prevailed in the ‘Two Phases’ May Decide Winner

Voters present their inked fingers after voting within the Karnataka meeting elections, at a polling station in Bengaluru on Wednesday. (Picture: PTI)

The Karnataka meeting elections had been clearly break up into two phases, one dominated by the Congress and the opposite by the BJP

Most exit polls have put the Congress within the lead in Karnataka. However, the ultimate deciding issue on end result day on Might 13 might be whether or not the Congress rode house on the momentum it constructed until April 26, or did the BJP handle to drag the election again in its favour within the final fortnight earlier than polling on Wednesday.

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The Karnataka meeting elections had been clearly break up into two phases, one dominated by the Congress and the opposite by the BJP. The primary section was earlier than April 26 when the Congress clearly had an edge based mostly on its sturdy “native” marketing campaign – it focussed on the ‘40% fee’ cost in opposition to the BJP authorities and the ‘5 ensures’ supplied to the general public. The Congress had spent two months until April going door-to-door with its ‘assure card’, which promised money doles to ladies and the unemployed, 200 items of free energy, 10 kg rice per household and free bus rides for ladies.

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The opposite section was within the final fortnight the place three ‘personal targets’ by the Congress gave BJP a platform to as soon as once more be within the operating whereas Prime Minister Narendra Modi set the narrative along with his mega street exhibits in Bengaluru. The primary personal aim was on April 27 when Congress nationwide president Mallikarjun Kharge known as the prime minister “a toxic snake”. The second was on Might 2 when the Congress launched its manifesto and promised to ban the Bajrang Dal. The third was on Might 7 when the get together’s official Twitter deal with attributed the “sovereignty” comment to senior chief Sonia Gandhi, which she truly by no means stated throughout a speech at an election rally.

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Native versus nationwide

Clearly, the Congress wished to maintain the marketing campaign native to keep away from a direct confrontation with Prime Minister Modi and the BJP, which wished the narrative to be nationwide through the “double engine” improvement pitch. It did succeed until their marketing campaign peaked until April 26. However within the final 14 days, the BJP cashed in on the missteps by the Congress and the PM introduced the get together again in competition with the saffron camp feeling it had peaked on the proper time.

A pointer to this was Kharge’s instantaneous remorse over his ‘toxic snake’ feedback on April 27 with the get together realising that such private assaults on Modi finally backfire. The inexplicable choice to incorporate a ‘Bajrang Dal ban’ promise within the Congress manifesto on Might 2 made Hanuman the theme for the BJP marketing campaign within the final week. Modi’s street exhibits on Might 6 and seven in Bengaluru and the BJP’s assaults on the purported ‘sovereignty’ comment by Sonia Gandhi additional enthused the get together’s rank and file.

Did these so-called setbacks for the Congress within the final two weeks price them dearly within the remaining image, because the BJP believes, or had the voter already made up its thoughts properly upfront? This may occasionally properly resolve the polls.

The North Karnataka areas

An X-factor within the election might be the important thing Kalyan Karnataka area, popularly often called the Hyderabad-Karnataka area, and the Kittur Karnataka area, popularly often called the Mumbai-Karnataka area. Collectively, these northern Karnataka areas have 90 seats and a few exit polls have predicted that the Congress may win massive in these areas. The AXIS ballot, for instance, has predicted that the Congress may win 60 out of the 90 seats.

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The Congress is banking on Kharge, who hails from the Kalyan Karnataka area and camped in Kalaburagi for a whirlwind marketing campaign. Kharge had misplaced his Lok Sabha seat on this area for the primary time in 2019. His Dalit (SC) credentials and his presence in Gulbarga may have labored for the Congress.

The Mumbai-Karnataka area, which has 50 seats, has been the stronghold of the BJP however senior Lingayat leaders like Jagadish Shettar from Hubli moved to the Congress. However the BJP feels it can retain its stronghold.

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